The chaos scenario

Internet-Advertising
The chaos scenario
By
Apr 8, 2005, 10:10

ORIGINAL ARTICLE AT: http://www.onthemedia.org/transcripts/transcripts_040805_chaos.html

BROOKE GLADSTONE: When it comes to media, it's a wonderful world, all right. That's kind of the theme of the show this week - wireless broadband for every Philadelphian, meters to track your every media move, news that comes from who knows where, a trillion colors, a thousand channels, media broken into a million fragments. The age of the mainstream media is passing. The new media order is yet to be born. But what happens in between? Bob Garfield is out this week, but he left us his answer: chaos.

BOB GARFIELD: For the moment, let's call it a hypothetical, but what if network broadcast television, the most powerful communications force in the history of mankind, the opiate of the masses, the home of desperate housewives, were to disappear. [CLIP FROM GHOSTBUSTERS]

DAN AKROYD: Fire and brimstone, coming down from the skies - rivers and seas boiling!

BILL MURRAY: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!

BOB GARFIELD: Okay. It would be disruptive. Now, what if TV as we know it were replaced by something really, really cool? [MUSIC]

FEMALE

CHORUS: [SINGING] MEET GEORGE JETSON-

BOB GARFIELD: Let's say it's 2020. George's job at Spacely Sprockets is gone, because digits are the new widgets. Over the air network TV is gone, too, along with program schedules, affiliate stations and Jimmy Kimmel's career. Jane, Judy and Elroy get their entertainment and their news any way they wish - TV, phone, camera, laptop, game console, MP3 player. Satellite radio is a 4 billion dollar, 8-track tape player stored on a high shelf in the garage, pushed aside by podcasting, which is free.

The Super Bowl has survived as the number one pay per view event. Survivor hasn't. You can still see any episode of CSI ever, but not on any advertiser's dime unless you choose for the viewing costs to be subsidized by ads. Yesiree, by George, it's a brave and exciting new world. [MUSIC]

But - it's in the future - which doesn't come till later. So, what if the old model collapsed before the bright, bold Jetsonian future is ready to pick up the pieces? What would it mean for the media business? What would it mean for advertisers? What would it mean for us - TV viewers who have more or less gotten used to plopping on to the couch to watch, say, Fear Factor.

Here's what it would mean. It would mean radical changes in the economy, the culture, and the society itself. And they wouldn't be easy to swallow. [SCENE FROM FEAR FACTOR - HARD TO SWALLOW MOMENT - PLAYS] And, by the way, it's happening right now. We are heading, all of us, into a historically turbulent moment in the history of media, with the very real risk of disruption on a mass scale. Call it the Chaos Scenario.

JIM STENGEL: I truly believe, and I know many of you do, that today's marketing model is broken.

BOB GARFIELD: Okay, maybe that statement didn't sound all that terrifying, except that the speaker was Jim Stengel, global marketing officer of Procter & Gamble, who was telling ad agencies that network television isn't giving P&G its money's worth. When the world's biggest advertiser, and therefore the world's biggest underwriter of media content, is looking elsewhere to spend its 5 and a half billion dollars a year, that makes Madison Avenue and Hollywood shudder.

J. D. LASICA: I think it's an inevitable kind of slow collapse of the entire mass media advertising market.

BOB GARFIELD: J.D. Lasica is president of the Social Media Group Consultancy and author of Darknet: Remixing the Future of Entertainment.

J.D. LASICA: What we're seeing is that not only does television have to re-invent itself from the content point of view; they have to re-invent themselves as an advertising medium.

BOB GARFIELD: The trends are undeniable. According to Nielsen, the network audience has eroded an average of 2 percent a year for a decade, while the US population increased by 30 million. In that span, the advertiser cost of reaching consumers has nearly tripled, assuming, that is, that those consumers armed with remote controls and now TiVo are actually watching the commercials, which, research shows, they usually are not.

These trends are not going to reverse, and the advertisers who pay all the bills are already beginning to flee. Ten years ago, American Express spent 80 percent of its marketing budget on television. Now it spends less than 30 percent.

Then there's the sword of Damocles called Cost. The reality TV fad has enabled networks to cast for hits with cheap programming, but the public is fickle. When the reality craze finally fizzles like the westerns and spy shows of yore, and the advertising pipers have fled, who will pay for all the expensive new tunes?

No wonder network executives speak of selling video on demand reruns over broadband. No wonder Rupert Murdoch's Newscorp retained Mackenzie & Company earlier this year to figure out how to transition to this internet thing, which is something like nailing plywood to the windows after the hurricane makes landfall.

No wonder Viacom Chairman Sumner Redstone announced plans to spin off CBS and the company's other broadcast properties lest they drain the rest of Viacom's profitability.

So, yeah - the collapse is under way. But wait - what's that coming? Just over the hill. [COLLAGE WITH MUSIC]

MAN: We're standing outside the Sam Addams Brewery…

WOMAN: It was terrifying.

MAN: I couldn't get into [...?...] the front door. So now I'm coming in through the back.

WOMAN: [SINGING] BAZOOKA! ABINGA! ABANGA! A BIBBITY BOP!

MAN: Okay, we're recording.

WOMAN: Recording? Okay, so today, Hon, we really left the office very early, got in the car, [MUSIC FROM ANOTHER SHOW UNDER] and we're up north…

BOB GARFIELD: Those are excerpts of video logs, or Vlogs, produced by individuals and digitally posted on a website called Unmediated.org. It's one of several sites devoted to generating media content from ordinary citizens. In the end, says co-founder Drazen Pantic, mass media will be overthrown by micromedia.

DRAZEN PANTIC: All of that is happening is a huge proliferation in last two years. It's a huge audience, and we will have zillions of people broadcasting for the audience of ten.

BOB GARFIELD: Or more than ten. Last month, a little girl named Dillon Verdi posted her iMovie on her dad's web page. Another blogger got wind of it and dubbed the 11 year old "the world's youngest vlogger." Within 24 ours, the video had been downloaded 2,000 times.

During the run up to the last election, Jibjab.com repeatedly scored millions of views for its satirical animations, and who can forget the public flogging of Tucker Carlson?

JON STEWART: Now this is theatre. I mean, it's, it's obvious- [BOTH SPEAK AT ONCE]

TUCKER CARLSON: It, it- No, no-

JON STEWART: How, how old are you?

TUCKER CARLSON: 35.

JON STEWART: And you wear a bow tie.

TUCKER CARLSON: Yeah, I do. I do. I do. [AUDIENCE LAUGHTER]

JON STEWART: So, so this is-

TUCKER CARLSON: No, no - I know, I know, you're…

JEFF JARVIS: So, that episode got - what? 400,000 viewers, maybe, on big, old powerful CNN?

BOB GARFIELD: Jeff Jarvis blogs at BuzzMachine.com.

JEFF JARVIS: Well, that same segment was copied on to the internet, where it got at least 5 million views. So, what's more powerful? The network CNN owns, or the network that no one owns? So now, suddenly, the distribution is exploded. Now, on the internet, we can all swim in the same pool. You and I can create content to swim in the same pool, next to the content created by, you know, Universal or Disney.

BOB GARFIELD: And it is a beautiful thing. The total democratization of media, combined with ultra-targeted ads consumers actually opt to see. We, the people, cease to be demographics. We become individuals again.

DAWN: Hey, it's the Dawn and Drew Show from March 28th, 2005. I'm Dawn Miselli…

DREW: And I'm Drew Domkiss. It's just barely the 28th. We got 5 minutes to midnight.

DAWN: What are you doing up?

DREW: Pshaw! I don't know.

BOB GARFIELD: A young Wisconsin couple can produce a radio show for pennies and deliver it direct to your iPod - a so-called podcast, ultimately competing for audience with, say, On the Media, which costs a comparative fortune. We podcast our show too, which makes us either enlightened participants in the new world order, or buggy whip manufacturers, delivering our goods by truck. But we are not blind, and we can see the text messaging on the wall. We can see that the time Americans spend on line has doubled in the past five years. We can see that broadband penetration has zoomed from 8 percent to 56 percent. We can see that a brave new world of zillion channel digital democracy awaits us all - if only the brave new world were ready. But at the moment, it is a collection of technologies and ideas and vacant lot bandwidth, a digital playground for visionaries and 11 year old girls - a place short on capital resources, technological infrastructure and rules. Never mind dogs and cats living together. Think Yugoslavia.

DRAZEN PANTIC: There is no way to make transition from the previous regime into anything that is different or new or whatever without a period of chaos.

BOB GARFIELD: Unmediated.org's Drazen Pantic, formerly of Belgrade's freedom-fighting radio station B-92, knows whereof he speaks. He eyewitnessed the ultimate fragmentation of a country - first by war and tyranny; then, in the year 2000, by the ascension of democracy. Democracy empowered individuals - a new model! Five years later, unemployment is at Great Depression levels, poverty is the norm, and the prime minister assassinated by the mob - because, Pantic understands, in societies and economies…

DRAZEN PANTIC: New, better thing is not going to be established overnight.

BOB GARFIELD: There are simply too many obstacles. Consider just a few. Though broadband penetration has soared to nearly 60 percent, it's still a long way from universal. Secondly, pending legislation aimed at movie piracy could outlaw the peer-to-peer software that makes citizen video possible. And third, despite the agitation of Procter & Gamble and a few others, says Chris Charron of Forrester Research, certain forces of the status quo will cling to habit and vested interest.

CHRIS CHARRON: Namely networks and ad agencies, who have a lot of stake in the buying and selling of advertising going on as it has for years, so they're not going to be very fast to move to these new forms of media.

BOB GARFIELD: That's why a vast multinational company like American Express finds itself experimenting with sponsored concerts and goofy long form web ads featuring Jerry Seinfeld and Superman. The company no longer sees the value in loading up on network ad spots, but there's no ready supply of other new media marketing opportunities to replace them. Yet, when I asked Chief Marketing Officer John Hayes why so many of his colleagues are still sitting on their hands, he offered some non-responsive answer about the consumer being the boss.

BOB GARFIELD: Would you stop being diplomatic for five seconds? [LAUGHTER] Is the industry ready for the new world order, or is it not?

JOHN HAYES: Well, [LAUGHS] certain, certain parts of it are, and certain parts aren't.

BOB GARFIELD: And what will happen to those who are not?

JOHN HAYES: Well, as in any industry, those who are unprepared for change will, you know, obviously suffer the consequences.

BOB GARFIELD: And most likely, so will you, because the chaos scenario isn't limited to the economic fortunes of Viacom and J. Walter Thompson and Procter & Gamble. If you like to collapse on the sofa and just veg out for an hour of, say, Alias, never mind Nightline - if you don't like to surf for content - if you're in the 44 percent of Americans without a high speed connection - you could be in for a long, tough slog. Om Malik, who writes for Business 2.0, imagines a netcasting universe offering an endless variety of lousy options.

OM MALIK: You can put a lot of bad, you know, video clips you shoot with your camera phone on the web, but how many people want to watch that?

BOB GARFIELD: For the record, there's at least one other doomsday scenario worth considering. It comes from David Poltrack, head of research for CBS, who happens to believe that, over the air network television will thrive for the foreseeable future. However, he warns, woe betide those who would dismantle it, because what is at stake is nothing less than the American way of life.

DAVID POLTRACK: And if, in fact, that current system deteriorates to the point that advertisers and marketers abandon it, I don't see anything that's going to replace it in the entire marketing infrastructure of the country, and the economy is going to be diminished, and that's a lot bigger problem than just a network television problem. [CLIP FROM OH BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU? PLAYS]

MAN: We ain't one-at-a-timin' here - we're mass-communicatin'!

MAN: Oh, yes. That's a powerful new force.

BOB GARFIELD: Yep. Like Pappy Daniel in Oh, Brother Where Art Thou? - CBS is enthusiastically embracing 20th Century Technology. The problem is that the micro-communicators aren't much interested in preserving that version of the American way. They are steadfastly fomenting their revolution, already in progress, which in the long run, will benefit George Jetson, Procter & Gamble and everybody else. In the words of Rishad Tobaccowala, president of the media buying firm Starcom IP-

RISHAD TOBACCOWALA: Those who will come to destroy TV will eventually save it. [SPRIGHTLY MUSIC]

CHORUS: [SINGING] JANE, HIS WIFE-

BOB GARFIELD: In the meantime, strap on those gravity shoes, hop on the treadmill, and try to keep your footing, because this voyage to the future is going to be a very rough ride.

GEORGE JETSON: [SHOUTING] Help! Help! Jane, stop this crazy thing! Jane - help - Jaaaaane! [THEME MUSIC UP & UNDER]

BROOKE GLADSTONE: That's it for this week's show. On the Media was produced by Megan Ryan, Tony Field, Jamie York and Mike Vuolo, and edited by me. Dylan Keefe is our technical director and Jennifer Munson our engineer. We had help from Susanna Dillaplane and Nick Gilewicz. Our webmaster is Amy Pearl. Katya Rogers is our senior producer and Dean Cappello our executive producer. Bassist/composer Ben Allison wrote our theme. You can listen to the program and find free transcripts, MP3 downloads and our podcast at onthemedia.org, and email us at onthemedia@wnyc.org. This is On the Media, from WNYC. Bob Garfield will definitely be back next week. I'm Brooke Gladstone.

This article is copyrighted material, the use of which may not have specifically authorized by the copyright owner. The material is made available in the The Media Giraffe Project's efforts to advance understanding of political, economic, democracy, First Amendment, technology, journalism, community and justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' any as provided by Section 107 of U.S. Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Chapter 1, Section 107, the material above is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. The Media Giraffe Project has no affiliation with the originator of this article, nor is the project endorsed or sponsored by the article's originator. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.